The 2026 Indian Premier League (IPL) playoffs are shaping up to be a thrilling affair, with just 13 matches left in the league stage. The odds are stacked in favor of two teams, Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB) and Gujarat Titans (GT), who are almost certain to secure their spots in the top four. GT, in particular, boasts an impressive 99.7% chance of finishing within the top four, with a 82.6% probability of securing either the first or second position. RCB, on the other hand, has a 99% chance of making the top four and a 77.6% chance of being among the top two.
This surge in RCB's fortunes is a stark contrast to the situation of Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR), who have suffered a dramatic crash in their playoff chances. After Wednesday's loss, KKR's odds of making the last four have shrunk to a mere 2.6%, and they can no longer even tie for one of the top two slots. The situation is equally dire for Delhi Capitals (DC), who have a 2.7% chance of making the playoffs, with the best they can hope for being a third-place finish, tied with anywhere between two and three other teams.
The remaining teams, Punjab Kings (PBKS), Chennai Super Kings (CSK), and Rajasthan Royals (RR), also face challenging odds. PBKS has a 63.6% chance of ending up among the top four but only a 22.2% chance of finishing among the top two. CSK, with a 53.2% chance of making the top four, has a 19% chance of ending up among the top two. RR, with a 53% chance of making the top four, has a 15.3% chance of grabbing one of the top two slots.
These odds are calculated based on the 8,192 possible combinations of results remaining with 13 games to go. For each team, the analysis considers how many combinations end with them being among the top four, either singly or tied, and how many combinations put each team in the top two, either singly or jointly. The data highlights the dramatic shift in fortunes for the teams, with GT and RCB on the cusp of qualification, while KKR and DC face an uphill battle to secure their playoff spots.
